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IEA Oil 2023 report and its projections

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By Mercy Kelani

There is a rapidly rising transitioning to a clean energy economy.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil 2023 report, inflated prices and security of supply concerns mentioned by the global energy crisis are speeding up the transition towards cleaner energy technologies. The report projects that global oil demand will increase by 6 percent between 2023 and 2028, to attain 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This increase in demand will rely on current government policies and market trends, with support from petrochemical and aviation sectors robust demands.

After 2026, it has been projected that the use of oil for transport fuels will begin to decline with the expansion of electric vehicles, improvement of fuel economy and growth of biofuels all cause reduction of consumption. Executive Director of IEA, Dr. Faith Birol, said that the transition to a clean energy economy is rising rapidly, with a likely global oil demand as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies gain advancement. Oil producers were advised to pay attention to the change and ensure calibration of their investment decisions for a proper transition.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq leads capacity building in OPEC+.

Also, IEA report asserted that there will be domination of medium-term capacity expansion plans by oil producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, with a 5.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) supply boost under the lead of the US, Brazil and Guyana. Within OPEC+, capacity building is led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, while African and Asian members struggle with increasing declines, and the production of Russian oil falls as a result of sanctions. The crude export potential of Africa is reduced by 15 percent due to refinery additions and unstable crude production.

Another projection by IEA suggests that oil demand in Africa, the Middle East, Eurasia and Latin America with increase over the forecast period from 2022 to 2028. In 2028, Oil demand in Africa will be 530 kb/d more than in 2022, supported by the increasingly expanding population of the continent, as GDP growth surpasses 3 percent on average over the forecast period. Oil use in Africa is majorly channeled towards gas/oil owing to the wide usage of diesel generators and limited access to stable electricity grids.

OPEC+ alliance contributes 12 percent of the growth.

LPG, a clean cooking fuel, will lead the growth of consumption at 4.7 percent per year, among the refined products. This huge increase of 150 kb/d over the forecast period is fostered by urbanization due to the rising spread of propane and butane in cooking rather than traditional biomass. Contrary to capacity, the outlook for the actual supply growth reveals that the US, Brazil and Guyana will dominate gains, accounting for 80 percent of the rise over the 2022-28 period. All together, 12 percent of the growth is contributed by OPEC+ alliance.

Over the six-year period, African OPEC+ members, except Libya, are likely to suffer significant losses owing to the inability of producers to attract enough investment to stop declines. Nigeria, when output declined to 40-year lows, briefly lost its position as top crude oil producer in Africa, 2022. However, after its recovery and stabilization of major export streams, it has resumed the top spot in ranking. But the IEA believes Nigeria’s top-slot rank to be short-lived due to serious underinvestment and sabotage in capacity and production.

Petroleum Industry Act to spur new investment in Nigeria.

Additionally, other African countries’ recent discoveries offer viable options to investors. Many believe that the future of the Nigerian oil industry depends on the success of the Petroleum Industry Act to lure new investment. This new law has installed regulatory bodies in the upstream and downstream sectors and the NNPC Limited. Investors are also offered improved fiscal terms that are believed by the government to attract substantial new spending, by the law. Despite this, recent signals from international oil companies are not promising.


Related Link

IEA: Website


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AN-Toni
AN-Toni
Editor
5 months ago

IEA Oil 2023 report and its projections.There is a rapidly rising transitioning to a clean energy economy.Express your point of view. 

DimOla
DimOla
Member
5 months ago

It is obvious that with the ever evolving science and technology the world is fast approaching clean energy technologies. Very soon the use of petrol chemical product to generate energy will be a thing of the pass. After which the world will be aim at achieving zero point energy, which is very fast and effective. Anyways, with the advent of AI dominating everywhere in technology, we should be expecting this type of energy to come very fast.

Iyanu12345ogg
Iyanu12345ogg
Member
5 months ago

The IEA’s Oil 2023 report suggests that the future is looking increasingly positive for renewable energy and a transition towards a cleaner economy. This transition is not only environmentally beneficial but also presents economic opportunities, such as the creation of new jobs in the renewable energy industry.

Kazeem1
Kazeem1
Member
5 months ago

According to the IEA’s Oil 2023 study, the outlook for renewable energy and the move to a cleaner economy is growing more promising. This changes will benefits the people and also offers business prospects.

Haykaylyon26
Haykaylyon26
Member
5 months ago

This a good project of renewable energy future of renewable energy and the transition to a greener economy is looking more and more hopeful

Taiwoo
Taiwoo
Member
5 months ago

According to the International Energy Agency’s Oil 2023 research, the outlook for renewable energy and the transition to a better economy is improving. This move will help people while also providing commercial opportunities.

Christiana
Christiana
Member
5 months ago

It’s just a matter of time till the era of fuel dependency will pass and the electric vehicle development will take charge riding on to to attain clean energy emission.

Tonerol10
Tonerol10
Member
5 months ago

There is a rapidly rising transitioning to a clean energy economy. We need to work and do the needful. We need to focus more on cleaning energy economy

Abusi
Abusi
Member
5 months ago

While the impact of oil industry has fueled enormous graith and development in some countries like Saudi Arabia, such cannot be said of Nigeria. Instead, while we generate income from crude oil, it still has negative impact on our environment. We need to gear towards a greener environment and form of generating energy.

SarahDiv
SarahDiv
Member
5 months ago

From all indications it is obvious that the projection given by International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Oil 2023 will some become a reality based on the current happenings. Very soon the world will transit from using petrol chemical product to cleaner energy technology. The technology is already available and will some be wide spread all over the globe.