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Nigeria economic growth forecast falls

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By Abdulwasiu Usman

World Bank forecast Nigeria’s economic growth to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023.

Nigeria’s economic growth projection has yet again witnessed another decrease by the World Bank Group noting the oil sector declination as the major acumen as revealed in its recent Global Economic Prospects report. The report projects that Nigeria’s economy will further decelerate from its current 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent in 2023 with no further growth expected in 2024. Notably, Nigeria’s growth had just decreased to 3.1 percent in 2022 , a 0.3 percent fall from the forecast made in June.

According to the World Bank Group, continuous decline in the oil sector generating poses a threat to the growth momentum in the non-oil sector, which can eventually have adverse effect on Nigeria’s oil-based economy. Oil output dropped to 1 million barrels per day, representing a fall by over 40 percent compared to its level in 2019. This shows the consequences resulting partly from the diversion of oil revenues to petrol subsidies, estimated at over 2 per cent of GDP in 2022 (NEITI 2022; World Bank 2022).

Incessant inflation rate which hit a record of 21 percent.

Among the consequences includes, technical problems, insecurity, rising production costs, theft, lack of payment discipline in joint ventures, and persistent underinvestment. A strong recovery in non-oil sectors moderated in the second half of the year as floods and incessant inflation rates which hit a record of 21 percent since the last 17 years, ravaged the country’s economy activities and market operation. Also, the bank further highlighted factors hindering the the country’s growth such as the low oil generation, insecurity, petrol subsidies, forex scarcity, among others, hamper growth in the country.

Additionally, persistent fuel and foreign exchange shortages, with the naira depreciating by over 30 percent last year in the parallel market, further dampened economic activity. It was also noted that the poor economic growth at 2.9 percent in 2023, will be barely above population growth, which is often said to be around 2.5 per cent in previous reports. This forecast came in a weeks following the bank downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth forecast from 3.8 percent to 3.1 percent.

Essential macroeconomic structure will increase growth.

The report, which was prepared by the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update (NDU), biannual World Bank report series, had revealed that Nigeria’s economy needs to grow faster in order to reduce poverty. It also noted that the increasing inflation had impoverished around five million more Nigerians into poverty since the start of 2022. Despite high oil export revenues, official reserves have fallen and the currency market is severely distorted, undermining the business environment and investment. This raises caution that the weaknesses in the macroeconomic policy framework are suppressing growth and making Nigeria more vulnerable to shocks.

However, there is an open chance for Nigeria to implement essential macroeconomic and structural reforms equipped with the necessary capacity to address the crises and vulnerable loops, while also increasing growth in the country. Taking such action will lift per-capital incomes, sustainably reduce poverty and deliver better life outcomes for many Nigerians. Nigeria also needs to make alternate and exigent business strategy moves to avoid a situation where up to 80 million working-age Nigerians do not have a full-time job by 2030.

Millions of impoverished Nigerians will benefit from the transformation.

Moreover, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Shubham Chaudhuri asserts that up to 23 million Nigerians could be living in extreme poverty situation. On his part, Alex Sienaert, World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria and co-author of the released Report explained that it would be of more beneficial gain for 80 million impoverished Nigerians, if the country could strategize and implement transformational moves to stabilize its macro-fiscal policy structure and promote investment in the country.


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Admin
10 months ago

Nigeria economic growth forecast fallsWorld Bank forecast Nigeria’s economic growth to fall to 2.9 percent in 2023. – Express your point of view.

jdpumping
jdpumping
Member
10 months ago

With several issues on ground affecting our economy predicting a an economic fall by 2.9 percent through the world bank won’t help us at all,I believe our government should pull their resources together to forestall such occurrence.

Abusi
Abusi
Member
10 months ago

Our economy growth rate index has fallen again for this year. It’s just unfortunate. I hope we can try and do everything possible to ensure we help the economy growth this year.

Taiwoo
Taiwoo
Member
10 months ago

World Bank Group’s recent Global Economic Prospects report stated that its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth had been lowered once again, with the decline of the oil sector being cited as the primary reason.

Godsewill Ifeanyi
Godsewill Ifeanyi
Member
10 months ago

It is crazy that in the second half of the year, a strong rebound in non-oil industries was muted as a result of floods and persistent inflation rates, which touched a record percent increase in over the last years.

Nwachukwu Kingsley
Nwachukwu Kingsley
Member
10 months ago

This demonstrates the implications that resulted in part from the redirection of money from oil sales to gasoline subsidies.

Hassan Isa
Hassan Isa
Member
10 months ago

The bank went on to identify additional problems that are impeding the progress of the country. Some of these concerns include poor oil generation, instability and a lack of foreign exchange.

Chibuzor
Chibuzor
Member
10 months ago

The naira fell in value on the parallel market by more than 30 percent over the course of the previous year, which further stifled economic activity. Persistent fuel and foreign exchange shortages also contributed to this.

Kazeem1
Kazeem1
Member
10 months ago

if the nation were capable of formulating long-term plans and putting those plans into action, it could be able to improve the framework of its macroeconomic policies and attract more foreign investment.

Adesanyaj72
Adesanyaj72
Member
10 months ago

Nigeria has an opportunity to increase growth by enacting critical macroeconomic and structural changes with the capacity to handle crises and vulnerable loops.

Iyanu12345ogg
Iyanu12345ogg
Member
10 months ago

Quite unfortunate the economy growth rate index has fallen again for this year. Let’s stumble into everything possible to revive the economy growth this year.

Last edited 10 months ago by Iyanu12345ogg
Haykaylyon26
Haykaylyon26
Member
10 months ago

With how poor our economy is and how things is going on in the country with no sign of improvement our economy growth might fall again I just hope our government do everything to stop this forecast from happen because people will suffer from it

DimOla
DimOla
Member
10 months ago

The economic depression, insecurity etc and contributory factors that have cause several economic collapse in the country.

SarahDiv
SarahDiv
Member
10 months ago

It is just too terrible and pathetic that we have all the necessary resources to be one of the best country.World bank have made a forecast of windfall of Nigeria economy.

Adeolastan
Adeolastan
Member
10 months ago

The economy situation of Nigeria is really cause for concern by the authority because all indices has been showing that Nigeria is already in trouble and no any tangible development has been archived by the people in the authority.

Ultra0711
Ultra0711
Member
10 months ago

This situation requires a exigent measures and adequate measure to counter and deter the dire forecasted scenario.

Tonerol10
Tonerol10
Member
10 months ago

Nigeria economic growth forecast falls. So many issues is affecting Nigeria general. Our economy is getting bad everyday. Government need to seat right

theApr
theApr
Member
10 months ago

The World Bank Group claims that an ongoing drop in oil sector revenue threatens the momentum of non-oil sector growth, which could eventually have a negative impact on Nigeria’s oil-based economy.

Remi1
Remi1
Member
10 months ago

By implementing crucial macroeconomic and structural adjustments that have the ability to handle crises and vulnerable loops, Nigeria has the chance to boost growth.

Bola12
Bola12
Member
10 months ago

The indicator measuring the expansion of our economy has dropped again this year. It’s a real shame. I really hope that we can do everything in our power to promote economic expansion in the coming year.

Tolaniiii
Tolaniiii
Member
10 months ago

In the second half of the year, floods and sustained inflation rates subdued a significant resurgence in non-oil businesses.

Christiana
Christiana
Member
10 months ago

In its most recent report titled Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank Group indicated that its prediction for the development of Nigeria’s economy has been revised downward once more, with the key cause being identified as being the fall of the country’s oil industry.