Before the worldwide agreement to stop carbon emissions by 2050 and Nigeria’s commitment to join in 2060, the adverse effects of climate change will significantly affect Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries, according to a Fitch Solution Industry Risk and Country Research. Despite making up less than 3% of the world’s emissions, Nigeria and other African Nations continue to be the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Nigeria is expected to experience a variety of aftereffects, such as increased flooding and some drought, which are expected to reduce food production and inundate its coastal zones and deltas. Other aftereffects include the spread of waterborne diseases and the risk of malaria, changes to natural ecosystems, and the loss of biodiversity.
Numerous climate models predict diminishing mean precipitation in the already dry regions. The total amount of water that is currently accessible in the continent’s main basins has reduced by 40–60%. President Muhammadu Buhari promised that Nigeria would reduce its emissions to net zero by 2060 at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland. He also encouraged wealthy nations to provide the $100 billion yearly commitment to the continent. According to Fitch’s most recent study, Sub-Saharan Africa is seeing increasingly frequent and extreme weather events due to the increase in global temperatures (SSA).
About 250 million people may experience high water stress in Africa.
It predicted that by 2030, around 250 million people in Africa may experience extreme water stress, leading to up to 700 million people being evacuated as a result, citing the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We anticipate that increased cross-border migration and large internal displacement in SSA will intensify ethnic tensions and increase competition for few resources, pushing governments to enact more stringent immigration regulations. Additionally, as a result of climate change, there will be a rise in poverty and economic disparity, providing fertile ground for social upheaval.
According to the agency’s monthly forecast presentation, between 2022 and 2031, it anticipates an increase in the number of internal displacements caused by the climate on the continent. It stated that ethnic tensions exacerbated by climate change will be exploited by those using ethnic nationalist politics or outright secessionism, explaining that increasing resource competition through cross-border migration could also encourage more restrictive immigration policies in the long run. We anticipate that Hausa-Fulani people in northern Nigeria, who face increased climatic danger, will migrate southward more frequently to states with greater Igbo and Yoruba dominance, thereby bolstering southern separatist movements.
North-eastern Nigeria will be vulnerable to intensified resource conflict.
According to the paper, increased resource conflict would be especially vulnerable in the Sahel, which includes northeastern Nigeria, as a result of increasing temperatures that lead to drier conditions in semi-arid and dry regions. As Sahelian groups flee violence and move to neighboring regions, we anticipate that land and water issues will worsen and possibly expand, worsening intercommunal conflict and regional instability. Given financial limitations, security concerns, and insufficient access to irrigation systems, the agricultural sector on the continent is not resilient to harsh weather occurrences.
Therefore, it awarded Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole a score of 50.5 on a scale of 100 (lower scores indicate higher risks); it also stressed that the score is significantly impacted by the region’s score of 39.0 in the LTPRI’s “characteristics of society” component. The analysis predicts that the more severe weather conditions will likely increase rural residents’ unemployment and income loss as well as their level of food insecurity since damaged crops will drive up food prices.
Solutions that have been made by other African countries.
In other African Nations, it was noted that Ethiopia, for instance, has been building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Blue Nile since 2011. This major development has heightened tensions with Egypt and Sudan in response to fears that the dam will cut off their countries’ main access to water. Despite the opposition of Egyptian and Sudanese officials, Ethiopia finished the third stage of the dam’s filling in August 2022, according to Fitch.