The Centre for Climate Change and Development (CCCD) a research think-tank at Alex Ekwueme Federal University has unveiled the Nigeria Deep Decarbonisation Pathways (DDP-Nigeria) project report, signalling a major step forward in environmental and economic sustainability. This extensive report is the result of immense cooperation between national and international partners, showcasing Nigeria’s dedication to reaching net-zero Emissions and leading Sustainable Development efforts across Africa. Collaboration on the project involved both the Federal Ministry of Environment in Nigeria and the Department of Climate Change (DCC) as well as the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC).
Funded by the French Development Agency (AFD) as part of the 2050 Facility, the DDP-Nigeria project is a research and capacity-building program aimed at implementing a Deep Decarbonisation Pathway in Nigeria. The Program Coordinator is the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), with support from the International Research Centre on Environment and Development (CIRED) in France. A dedicated group of research experts, advisory board members, a national management committee, and national technical/steering committee came together to drive the project to support the country’s goals for both environmental conservation and economic growth.
Key assumptions from the NDC, ETP shaped the framework.
Core focus of the DDP-Nigeria project revolved around three key components: training and empowering local experts and researchers, crafting low-emission development strategies tailored to Nigeria’s specific needs, and fostering a collaborative network of African research institutions for sharing climate change knowledge. Its purpose was to align with the Federal Government of Nigeria’s pledge to promote low-emission development in various domestic and global platforms. Low-emission development policies in advanced countries are carefully designed by analyzing the economic sectors through extensive long-term development scenario modelling.
Thus, in the project, a unique analytical framework was created by combining energy-macroeconomic modelling with insights from various economic sectors such as power, transport, buildings, oil and gas, industry, and AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use). This framework was shaped by key assumptions taken from the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), the Federal Government of Nigeria’s commitments at COP26 in Glasgow, and the country’s abundant natural resources like Natural Gas and renewable energy. The report provides an in-depth analysis of crucial energy sectors, presenting multiple options for Nigeria to achieve its goal of reaching net-zero emissions.
Total emissions are projected to reach 1053 MtCO2eq by 2060.
Also, the report offers detailed insights into the projections of four potential future development routes, known as scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), and Renewable Energy Scenario (RES). These scenarios outline different strategies for Nigeria to effectively transition towards a net zero economy by 2060, while also examining the broader economic impacts of each envisioned pathway. By 2060, Nigeria’s total emissions are projected to reach 1053 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2eq) under a Business As Usual scenario.
Continuous use of fossil fuels, firewood, and charcoal is held accountable for the emission drivers, impacting health, biodiversity, and climate change. Looking at it from a macroeconomic perspective, the total International Financial Aid (IFA) over 39 years would reach $880 billion to support the transition to Renewable Energy Scenario. Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan comes with a hefty price tag of $1.9 trillion, with the IFA making up approximately half of this cost. A recent analysis suggests that with the IFA, Nigeria could see an improvement in its economy through low-emission development pathways, leading to a boost in employment rates.
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To sum up, transitioning the Nigerian economy to be decarbonized will hinge on the incorporation of natural gas as a temporary fuel and the integration of various renewable energy sources (including solar, wind, hydropower, and bioenergy) along with other clean energy options such as nuclear power. These efforts must also be accompanied by sector-specific strategies to promote energy efficiency and effective energy management. Chukwumerije Okereke, the Director of CCCD and the main author of the report, emphasized that it is more than a plan – it’s a comprehensive blueprint that merges economic progress with responsible environmental management.