The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has revealed that Nigeria’s crude oil production has risen beyond the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in January 2025, exceeding the 1.5 million Barrels Per Day (bpd) limit by three percent. The country’s daily production reached over 1.5 million bpd, signalling a significant recovery in oil output. In addition to crude oil production, Nigeria also produced 198,783 bpd of condensate, bringing its total oil output to an average of 1,737,480 bpd for the month.
During the month, the country’s lowest production stood at 1.66 million bpd, while peak production hit 1.79 million bpd, indicating a steady increase in output levels. The January production figures reflect a positive shift compared to December 2024, when the region achieved 98.97 percent of its OPEC-mandated quota with a total daily average production of 1.66 million bpd. Nevertheless, the nation’s ability to meet and exceed its OPEC quota in January represents a turnaround after years of struggling to reach production targets. The nation consistently fell short of its 2022, 2023, and 2024 quotas.
Oil theft remains a persistent threat to output growth.
In December 2024, the country’s crude output stood at 1.48 million bpd, while blended and unblended condensates brought total production to 1.66 million bpd. The January boost in production signals a promising start to 2025, with crude output rising from the 1.4 million bpd recorded in late 2024 to above 1.5 million bpd in the new year. This progress aligns with government efforts to stabilise and enhance the nation’s Petroleum Industry amid ongoing Security threats and Infrastructure constraints.
Despite the positive production figures, the region continues to struggle with crude theft, which has long undermined the petroleum industry. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recently disclosed significant losses, revealing that the nation loses an estimated 700,000 barrels of crude daily to theft, with significant portions of stolen crude being funnelled into the international black market. NNPCL’s latest crackdown on Crude Theft has discovered 9,332 illegal refineries and dismantled 7,015 unauthorised Pipeline connections. Additionally, security forces have arrested 2,849 suspects and confiscated 1,467 trucks laden with stolen crude.
Massive pipeline repairs and infrastructure rebuilding are underway.
To combat losses and enhance production efficiency, the NNPCL has intensified efforts to repair and secure crude infrastructure. So far, 3,100 vandalised pipelines have been restored, while 12 new illegal pipeline connections were uncovered within just one week. These initiatives ensure the country sustains its recent production gains and minimises Revenue losses due to illicit activities. The federal government has repeatedly emphasised the importance of curbing Oil Theft to maximise revenue from the petroleum sector, which remains a critical component of the national economy.
OPEC plays a vital role in regulating global crude production and pricing. Established in 1960, the organisation was founded by five key members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Over the years, it has expanded to include 12 member countries that collectively influence global crude supply and pricing dynamics. As of 2022, OPEC countries accounted for 38 percent of global crude production, underscoring their significant impact on the international energy market. As an OPEC member, Nigeria must adhere to its assigned production quota, which is periodically adjusted to balance supply and demand.
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However, the question remains whether Nigeria can maintain and build upon its recent production gains. While the government’s intensified efforts against theft and infrastructure sabotage yield results, the long-term Sustainability of these improvements will depend on continued policy reforms, security measures, and investments in the oil and gas sector. As 2025 progresses, the country’s ability to maintain steady production levels while curbing theft and vandalism will be key indicators of its petroleum sector’s resilience and future growth potential.