According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s GDP per capita fell from $877.07 in 2024 to $835.49 in 2025, a 4.74 percent decrease. Taking a look back, the nation’s GDP per capita growth rate has been erratic, settling at 2.0 in 2024, 0.7 in 2023, and -0.4 in 2018, a considerable decline from 2010’s 5.0, as per World Economics. This carries on a long-term downward trend that started in 2014, when GDP per capita peaked at $3,220. Nevertheless, the IMF predicts a recovery in the upcoming years, with GDP per capita expected to rise in 2026 and 2027, to eventually break the $1,000 mark in 2028 at an anticipated $1,040.
Alongside most of the sub-Saharan African countries, Nigeria falls within $500 and $2,500 per capita, with some having lower levels, as reported. This development highlights Nigeria’s persistent economic conundrum, which reflects a protracted period of slow growth, inflationary pressures, and structural inefficiencies. A drop in GDP per capita, a gauge of the average economic output per person, has sparked worries over Nigerians’ general living standards, income distribution, and financial well-being. This declining trajectory has been the direct consequence of decades of economic instability, varying oil income, inconsistent policy, and external shocks.
Economic boom of the 2000s and its abrupt decline.
In the 2000s, Nigeria was a rising global economic star due to the implementation of a number of Structural Reforms during a period of high oil prices. Between 2001 and 2010, Nigeria’s Economy was among the top 15 fastest expanding in the world, with an average yearly growth rate of 8.2 percent. However, the robust growth performance that had been observed from 2001 to 2014 came to an abrupt stop in 2015, as oil prices dropped, the Security situation worsened, macroeconomic reforms were reversed, and economic policies became more uncertain. The painstakingly earned gains of the 2000s vanished between 2011 and 2021.
Consequently, growth declined to 4.4% between 2011 and 2014. The country’s economy fell into a period of slow economic activity, with growth falling to 1.1 percent in 2015–2021, significantly less than the 2.6 percent population growth, as a result of the country’s inability to effectively use its natural resource windfalls to create an enabling business environment that draws private investments and generates high-quality jobs. Gains in per capita income were reversed when Economic Growth slowed and the population continued to expand at a rapid yearly pace of roughly 2.6%, leading to a steady rise in the number of Nigerians living in poverty.
Decades of non-inclusive progress left Nigeria impoverished.
Despite its tremendous potential, Nigeria is finding it difficult to keep pace with its peers’ GDP growth rates and economic change. Since the early 2010s, its development outcomes have stagnated. For example, Nigeria’s GDP per capita fell from US$2,280 in 2010 to US$2,097 in 2020, while the country’s Poverty rate increased from 68 million to almost 80 million, making it the second-largest impoverished population in the world after India. Furthermore, Nigeria ranks 161 out of 189 on the 2020 Human Development Index (HDI), making it one of the least developed nations in the world.
Over the past ten years, Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability has slowly deteriorated, culminating in 2021 as a result of the country’s excessive reliance on oil exports, which make up over 90% of all exports, expensive fuel subsidies, insufficient Tax collections, inadequate tax administration, and Trade restrictions. While insufficient fiscal flexibility impedes Investment in human capital and public services, poor exchange rate management and the Central Bank’s monetization of the deficit have caused double-digit inflation. Following decades of unequal and exclusive progress, Nigeria remains impoverished, characterized by glaring regional differences in social and economic status.
Related Article: Nigeria’s GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2025: W’Bank
As per a World Bank Group report, it would take roughly ten years for Nigeria to reach the GDP per capita level seen in 2014, just before the oil shock, even at the per capita GDP growth rate of 1.1 percent seen in 2022—which was partially due to base effects after the 2020 recession. The report suggested that Nigeria must make difficult decisions that carry risks. The price of not making a choice, however, is considerably greater. It noted that the next several years could see Nigeria reach its full potential, though, if its leaders decide to take the chance of abandoning the status quo and business-as-usual.