Findings shows that Nigeria’s crude oil Revenue in 2024 stood at around ₦50.88 trillion. During the year, the country produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil at an average price of $80.53 per barrel as per data by Statista Research Department, at the rate of ₦1,546 per $1. Total oil production, including condensates, was 566.79 million barrels. This
substantial revenue amounting to ₦50.88 trillion was generated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, international oil companies, and their local counterparts for the sale of crude produced in Nigeria.
Initially, the Nigeria government projected ₦38.01 trillion in revenue from the production of 649.7 million barrels, assuming a benchmark price of $78 a barrel and an exchange rate of ₦750 per 1$, for the year 2024. However, actual revenue far surpassed this projection, reaching ₦50.88 trillion, a surplus of ₦12.87 trillion. The increase in revenue can be largely attributed to the depreciation of the naira, which made oil exports more lucrative, as well as fluctuations in global crude oil prices.
Challenges and opportunities with the revenue surplus.
This significant surplus highlights both the challenges and potential of Nigeria’s oil sector. While the country continues to grapple with structural issues like oil theft, underinvestment, and inefficiencies, the substantial revenue indicates the potential of Nigeria’s oil reserves to meet both local and international demand. Maximizing this potential remains key to Nigeria’s economic stability, and ongoing efforts to increase oil production while managing the risks posed by global price fluctuations are essential for sustainable growth in the sector.
Several factors were taken into consideration when allocating this revenue to the three levels of government, NNPCL, IOCs, and indigenous oil producers, among others. Looking at how the price of oil varied all year long; in March, Bonny Light crude reached $88.80 per barrel, but in September, it dropped to less than $70 per barrel. Production of both crude and condensate peaked at 1.69 mbpd, which is lower than the 1.8 mbpd that some officials have claimed.
Bold production targets to revitalize oil output in 2025.
Throughout the year, Nigeria’s crude production was unstable, falling from 1.42 million barrels per day in January to 1.48 million barrels per day in November, below the 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota. From $82.44 on March 11, the Brent Crude rose to $86.87 in the following days. However, in September, Brent crude oil futures fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021, dropping by 2.75 per cent to $69.08. Efforts to increase production to 2 million barrels per day continue as part of larger objectives to stabilize the sector.
Oil prices were also impacted by market dynamics, including geopolitical considerations and attacks on Russian refineries. Moving into 2025, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has set a high production target of at least 2.1 million barrels of oil per day. This target aims to greatly increase the country’s oil production, which averaged 1.48 million bpd in 2024 and fell short of its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd. Chief Executive Engr. Of the commission, Gbenga Komolafe, explained that the ambitious production target is intended to establish Nigeria as a more sustainable and competitive participant in the global oil and gas sector.
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Recent successes reflect ongoing efforts to boost upstream activities and enhance the country’s crude oil production capacity. The consistent rise in production is viewed as a move in the right direction for Nigeria’s ongoing efforts to fortify its oil sector. NUPRC’s plan is in line with broader efforts to stabilize and boost Nigeria’s oil sector, ensuring sustained revenue generation and meeting both domestic and Export demands. Achieving the broader targets will require tackling production issues like technological inefficiency, global market volatility, and instability in important oil-producing countries.