The Lagos State Government has issued an early warning about a heavy rainy season that is expected to last longer than usual, with a possible delay in cessation stretching into December. According to the seasonal climate prediction issued by the state’s Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, Lagos will experience an above-normal volume of rainfall in 2025. The rainy season is forecasted to begin in late March and extend into early December, with an estimated total precipitation of 1,936mm, surpassing historical averages from 1991 to 2020. The forecast signals a major increase in rainfall across the state, prompting concerns about potential flooding, property damage, and economic disruptions
Meteorologists attribute this extended rainy season to the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is expected to dominate the weather patterns for the first six to eight months of the year. This will contribute to increased precipitation across various parts of Lagos, including Ikeja, Badagry, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, and Epe. Ikeja, for instance, is predicted to experience its first rainfall by early April, with a cessation date in December, accumulating an estimated 1,900mm of rain throughout the season. Badagry, on the other hand, will see rainfall begin in late March and continue until early December, with a projected total of 1,978mm of precipitation.
Potential flash floods and strong winds pose risks to residents.
However, the prolonged rainfall and increased precipitation levels raise serious concerns about flash floods, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Officials have cautioned that heavy downpours could overwhelm drainage systems, resulting in disruptions to daily activities, damage to infrastructure, and the displacement of residents in vulnerable neighborhoods. In addition to flooding, strong winds are expected at the onset and conclusion of the rainy season. These conditions could lead to further complications, including tree uprooting, damage to power lines, flight delays, and business interruptions.
Previous occurrences have demonstrated that such weather patterns impact economic activities, with potential losses running into millions of dollars due to Infrastructure damage and delays in commerce. In response to the forecast, the Lagos State Government has assured residents that it is implementing flood control measures to minimise the anticipated disruptions. The government emphasise that extensive drainage maintenance, infrastructural improvements, and proactive measures to manage waste disposal will be critical in mitigating the effects of heavy rainfall. Also, they will collaborate with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to enhance climate adaptation strategies, ensuring timely warnings and necessary interventions are in place.
Role of early warning systems in reducing disaster impact.
Efforts are being made to improve urban drainage systems, clear blocked waterways, and enforce building regulations in flood-prone areas. Residents are encouraged to play their part by avoiding the indiscriminate disposal of waste, which is a major cause of clogged drainage channels leading to flooding. Additionally, land-use planning is being reinforced to prevent illegal developments that obstruct natural water flow. Meanwhile, enhancing early warning systems is a key aspect of the state’s flood preparedness strategy. The government is considering adopting mobile applications and text message alerts to provide real-time updates on weather conditions.
By improving public awareness, officials hope residents will take timely precautions, such as securing properties, relocating from high-risk areas when necessary, and staying informed about weather developments. Lagos has a long history of flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage systems and high population densities. In July 2021, severe floods submerged parts of the city, leaving many stranded and causing extensive damage to vehicles, homes, and businesses. The economic cost of flooding in the state is estimated at about $22.2 million annually, noting the urgency of effective flood management strategies.
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Some of the most vulnerable areas to flooding include Ikeja, Ikorodu, Lekki, Surulere, and Victoria Island. Due to their topography and rapid urbanisation, these locations often experience significant waterlogging during heavy rains, which can cause property damage and disruptions to transportation networks. The government has identified these areas as priorities for drainage system upgrades and other preventive measures. Authorities are calling on residents to stay alert and take necessary precautions to safeguard their lives and properties. As part of community preparedness efforts, individuals must clear gutters around their homes, refrain from dumping waste in canals, and report blocked drainage channels to relevant authorities.