Nigeria has continued to experience food shortages over the past years, with one in ten of the population experiencing severe hunger, despite the nation’s enormous agricultural potential. This ongoing issue is caused by a complex interplay of environmental and socioeconomic factors, endangering the stability of the country and the livelihood of millions of people. Food availability in the country is highly impacted by Climate Change and environmental disasters. Across the Nigerian food value chain, post-harvest processing, market disruptions, storage, distribution, result in the loss of over 15 million metric tons of food.
One of the main drivers of Nigeria’s food shortfall is Insecurity in rural areas, especially in the northern regions, which are the country’s agricultural heartlands, Persisting violence in the Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states in the northeast, hinder availability and access to food. This restricts access to markets and the flow of goods, separating communities and making it impossible to distribute food surplus even during the post-harvest period. According to the Nigerian Security Tracker, between January and June 2023, armed groups in Nigeria killed over 128 farmers and abducted 37 others in the first half of 2022.
Climate change induced crop and economic loss.
In fear of attacks, many farmers have abandoned their land, resulting in a decrease in Agricultural Productivity and mass displacement. Staples including rice, millet, and maize have been hard hit by this situation. Climate change and unpredictable weather patterns have also contributed significantly to the worsening of food shortages, as the price of food necessities rises. Frequent drought, flooding, and erratic rainfall have decimated farmlands and disrupted planting and harvesting cycles in Nigeria. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that the floods from October 1–15, 2024, alone, flooded 4.5 million hectares of land, including over 1.6 million hectares of agricultural land, and impacted over 9.2 million people.
According to FAO analyses, the cumulative yearly output losses for rice, sorghum, and maize in the flooded areas could be approximately 1.1 million tonnes due to the severity and duration of the floods. This could feed 13 million people for a year. Meanwhile, the potential losses in grain crops is estimated to be about $1 billion in economic losses. Nigeria’s ongoing macroeconomic crisis, characterized by currency devaluation, growing inflation, and Tax deficits, also contribute to the food shortages.
Inflation and economic instability impacts food access.
Rising inflation, which read a record high of 33.95 percent in May 2024 and over 90% annual depreciation of the Nigerian naira, combined to decreased household purchasing power and restricted access to food for lower-income households. As a result, the cost of fundamental foods is still much higher than average, making it hard for many households to satisfy their basic food demands. Another contributing factor is the lack of modern farming methods and infrastructure, especially among small scale farmers, who are the backbone of the agricultural sector. Many continue to use antiquated equipment and techniques, which reduces their output.
Additionally, poor storage facilities result in large post-harvest losses, as crops sometimes deteriorate before they can be sold. Food shortages are further exacerbated by rapid population growth. Nigeria’s population is expected to double by 2050 at an annual growth rate of more than 2.5 percent. This growing population size is outpacing food supplies, further straining an already fragile system. Also, the land border closures in recent years, intended to reduce Smuggling and promote local production, have inadvertently contributed to food shortages, by disrupting the supply chain for food imports.
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These compounded shocks have combined to disrupt the seasonal cycles of food availability, resulting in high levels of need all year round. 33.1 million people are predicted to experience severe food insecurity during the 2025 lean season (June–August), according to the food insecurity and Malnutrition analysis Cadre Harmonisé, led by the Nigerian government and supported by partners. This indicates a concerning increase of 7 million people compared to the same period last year. Overall, it underscores the urgency to address Nigeria’s growing food shortages accompanied by the food insecurity crisis.