On April 14, 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran fired more than 100 drones towards Israel in retaliation for the attack that Israel carried out on its consulate in Damascus. On April 1st, 2024, Israel bombed the Iranian consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. A total of 16 people were killed in the bombing, which included a senior Quds Force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, seven IRGC officers, and two civilians.
Iran promised to respond to the attack because Israel’s action was a violation of international laws. Although the government of Israel had ample time to prepare for the arrival of the projectiles, the Israeli government is signalling a possibility for another reprisal of its own. These back-and-forth attacks could result in World War III as allies of Israel are drawn into a regional war. This will have a significant effect on many countries of the world, especially import-dependent countries like Nigeria.
Nigeria will gain more in revenue as oil prices will rise.
One of the effects for Nigeria is that the Federal Government will realize more money in the sale of crude oil as an Iran-Israel war will likely make oil prices soar. According to The Guardian, long before the threat of Iran’s attack became public, there had been limited energy market consequences from the attack on Israel by Hamas on 7 October and the retaliatory bombing campaign against Gaza by Israel. But an Israel-Iran war would be different. Iran is a founding member of OPEC and produces about 3.2m barrels of oil a day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Additionally, Iran was the world’s second largest source of supply growth after the United States, according to the IEA. Forecasters had predicted that Iran would produce 280,000 more barrels per day this year when compared with last year. Any attack that would hinder this would surely raise oil prices. According to Citigroup analysts, led by Max Layton, oil prices could rise above $100 a barrel for the first time since the summer of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. This is good news for Nigeria which rely solely on the sale of crude to Finance its budget.
Religious reprisals could be carried out in the country.
Meanwhile, on social media, Nigerians are starting to take sides. Many Muslims, majorly from the northern part of the country, side with Iran which they believe is avenging their brothers in Palestine and specifically Gaza. Many Christians, on the other hand, take sides with Israel which they believe is the nation of God’s beloved people. Posts on Social Media platforms such as Twitter clearly show the two sides of the divide. A small minority are neutral and clamour for Nigerians to steer clear whatever happens in the Middle East.
However, if Israel attacks Iran and it escalates into a full-blown war, some misguided extremists in Nigeria could carry out reprisals to avenge their brothers in the Middle East. This is analogous to the case of attacks that was carried out in the North in 2006 over Danish caricatures of Muhammed. This is unlikely to happen if their preferred entity in the war has the upper hand and is likely to decimate the other. But if allies join the fray and Iran is backed into a corner, this may be a response in Nigeria.
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To sum it up, an Iran-Israel war is unlikely to cause major effects in the country. According to many neutrals in Nigeria, the country has no “horse in the race.” But even though the war would happen far away (not on the continent), the effect will show in the Revenue that the government generates from the sale of crude oil. The possibility of reprisals is also something that Security Agencies should anticipate and ensure that law and order is maintained across the country. This will be achieved when all perpetrators of any attack because of that war are properly punished.