By 2025, Nigeria wants to produce 3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), according to Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Oil) Heineken Lokpobiri. Given that Nigeria’s production, including condensates, was 1.66 million barrels per day in December 2024 and that crude oil production was approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, this objective is ambitious. The present capacity would need to be doubled in order to meet this goal. Nigeria’s decreased oil production has been caused by a number of variables. The main issue is oil theft, which costs the nation between 400,000 and 700,000 barrels per day, or about $4 million every day.
Companies leaving onshore fields owing to theft and vandalism have also made maintenance problems worse. Additionally, there has been less Investment in Nigeria’s oil sector, which has limited the growth of new fields and replenishment of depleted reserves. Nonetheless, there is some hope due to recent advancements in the industry. International Oil Companies (IOCs) have sold onshore assets to Nigerian firms. For example, Seplat bought Mobil’s onshore fields, Oando bought Eni’s assets, and Renaissance bought Shell’s holdings. It is anticipated that these transactions will help to boost output.
Nigeria must encourage additional domestic investment.
A Joint Task Force commanded by the military has been sent by the government to the Niger Delta to fight vandalism and oil theft, but its efficacy has been questioned. Security guards are also accused of participating in the theft. Fixing these security flaws is essential for increasing productivity. Scepticism persists despite Lokpobiri’s continued optimism about the military’s capacity to increase security. Nigeria must encourage additional domestic investment, offer incentives to draw in more capital, and successfully fight Oil Theft if it is to meet the goal. For 2025, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has established a more achievable production goal of 2.1 million barrels per day.
For Nigeria’s Economy to be strengthened, production must rise. Nigeria’s goal to increase its oil output to 3 million Barrels Per Day (bpd) by 2025 is a bold one, particularly in light of the country’s past production patterns and current difficulties. Nigeria’s oil production peaked in the early 2000s at about 2.5 million barrels per day. Production, however, had dropped to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day by August 2023, indicating a notable loss over the previous 20 years. It is instructive to look at nations with comparable oil production profiles.
Extensive policy changes are required to revive Nig.’s oil & gas industry.
Brazil’s oil production, for example, has significantly increased and is now producing a record 4.482 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This expansion is a result of steady exploration and production expenditures as well as strong regulatory environments. Nigeria’s production, on the other hand, has decreased as a result of reasons like inadequate investment, inconsistent regulations, and security issues. Nigeria has long struggled with oil theft and Pipeline damage, which have a big influence on output levels. Using military forces, the government has launched initiatives such as Operation Delta Safe to protect oil infrastructure.
Oil theft is still a significant problem in spite of these initiatives. Alternative tactics can include partnerships with Private Security companies to improve surveillance and reaction capabilities, Technology advancements like real-time pipeline monitoring systems, and Community Engagement initiatives to promote local ownership of oil assets. Industry insiders stress that in order to revive Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, extensive policy changes are required. An expert in the field, Gideon Daramola, supports simplifying regulatory frameworks to cut down on red tape and draw in investment.
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Additionally, the Nigerian government might take into account the following actions to meet the 3 million barrels per day goal: Infrastructure development, investment incentives, regulatory reforms, and local content enhancement. Nigeria’s economy may benefit from increased oil production, but the environmental effects must be taken into account. In places like the Niger Delta, past operations have caused serious environmental degradation, which has led to a loss of biodiversity and livelihoods. The government and oil firms should enact strict environmental regulations, make investments in cleanup and remediation, and support Renewable Energy in order to strike a balance between ecological and commercial interests.